Deportes Tolima 0–1 Llaneros: Result & Stats

Deportes Tolima

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Llaneros

J. Ramirez 61'

2/7/2026

Primera A · Apertura - 5Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Deportes Tolima55%

×Draw27%

Llaneros19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportes TolimaExpected goals in this matchLlaneros

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.73

Deportes Tolima

1.46

Llaneros

0.73

Deportes Tolima creates 100% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 10 away

1.38

creates per match

0.75

0.71

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Deportes Tolima

1.38

Llaneros

0.75

allows per match

Deportes Tolima

0.71

Llaneros

1.55

+0.09on par

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Deportes Tolima+0.09on par

Llaneros-0.05on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Tolima ↓

Llaneros →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Deportes Tolima or draw

81%

Deportes Tolima or Llaneros

73%

Draw or Llaneros

45%

Winning margin

Deportes Tolima wins by 2+

28%

Llaneros wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Deportes Tolima 1+ goals

77%

Deportes Tolima 2+ goals

43%

Deportes Tolima 3+ goals

18%

Llaneros 1+ goals

52%

Llaneros 2+ goals

17%

Llaneros 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Deportes Tolima (draw refunded)

74%

Llaneros (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Tolima at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

Llaneros away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.55 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Tolima attack 1.38 + Llaneros defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.46

Llaneros attack 0.75 + Deportes Tolima defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Deportes Tolima scores more

55%

level

27%

Llaneros scores more

19%

Deportes Tolima at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Deportes Tolima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

J. Ramirez

Llaneros · M

8.2

Match Events

14'

Jhon Vásquez

46'

J. P. Torres Patino← E. Ricardo

46'

J. Gonzalez← K. Florez

61'

J. Ramirez↳ K. Caicedo

66'

J. Angulo← J. Mera

66'

C. Trujillo← J. Nieto

70'

E. Restrepo← Kelvin Osorio

70'

L. Miranda← K. Caicedo

75'

Y. Moreno← S. P. Barbosa Gomez

80'

J. Blanco← Jhon Vasquez

83'

J. Pertuz← J. Ramirez

83'

E. Laszo← M. Sierra

90+5'

Leider Riascos

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportesLlaneros

Overview

64%Possession36%

12Total Shots7

6Corners4

9Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots7

5On Target3

6Off Target2

1Blocked2

5Inside Box4

7Outside Box3

Passing

64%Possession36%

514Total Passes284

427Accurate Passes206

83%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls9

0Yellow Cards2

2Offsides3