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Llaneros vs Barranquilla — Primera B 2018

Llaneros
Llaneros
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 2
Barranquilla
Barranquilla
10/23/2023Primera BPrimera B · Clausura - Quadrangular - 2Estadio Bello Horizonte - Rey Pelé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Llaneros54%
×Draw26%
Barranquilla21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llaneros
1.53
Barranquilla
0.84

Llaneros creates 82% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 135 away

creates per match

Llaneros
1.45
Barranquilla
0.82

allows per match

Llaneros
0.87
Barranquilla
1.61

finishing

Llaneros+0.00on par
Barranquilla+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llaneros ↓

Barranquilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Llaneros or draw
79%
Llaneros or Barranquilla
74%
Draw or Barranquilla
46%

Winning margin

Llaneros wins by 2+
28%
Barranquilla wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Llaneros 1+ goals
78%
Llaneros 2+ goals
45%
Llaneros 3+ goals
20%
Barranquilla 1+ goals
57%
Barranquilla 2+ goals
21%
Barranquilla 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Llaneros (draw refunded)
72%
Barranquilla (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llaneros at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.87 · 134 matches

Barranquilla away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.61 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llaneros attack 1.45 + Barranquilla defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.53

Barranquilla attack 0.82 + Llaneros defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Llaneros scores more
54%
level
26%
Barranquilla scores more
21%

Llaneros at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Llaneros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Llaneros 4–2 Barranquilla

Llaneros beat Barranquilla 4-2 in Primera B on October 23, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Bello Horizonte - Rey Pelé in Villavicencio.