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Barranquilla vs Llaneros — Primera B 2018

Barranquilla
Barranquilla
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Llaneros
Llaneros
8/28/2024Primera BPrimera B · Clausura - 7Estadio Romelio Martínez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Barranquilla39%
×Draw29%
Llaneros32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barranquilla
1.18
Llaneros
1.05

Barranquilla creates 12% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 134 away

creates per match

Barranquilla
1.21
Llaneros
0.99

allows per match

Barranquilla
1.11
Llaneros
1.15

finishing

Barranquilla+0.00on par
Llaneros+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barranquilla ↓

Llaneros →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Barranquilla or draw
68%
Barranquilla or Llaneros
71%
Draw or Llaneros
61%

Winning margin

Barranquilla wins by 2+
16%
Llaneros wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Barranquilla 1+ goals
69%
Barranquilla 2+ goals
33%
Barranquilla 3+ goals
12%
Llaneros 1+ goals
65%
Llaneros 2+ goals
28%
Llaneros 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Barranquilla (draw refunded)
55%
Llaneros (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barranquilla at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.11 · 136 matches

Llaneros away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.15 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barranquilla attack 1.21 + Llaneros defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.18

Llaneros attack 0.99 + Barranquilla defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Barranquilla scores more
39%
level
29%
Llaneros scores more
32%

Barranquilla at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Barranquilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Barranquilla 3–2 Llaneros

Barranquilla beat Llaneros 3-2 in Primera B on August 28, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Romelio Martínez in Barranquilla.