Llaneros 0–0 Alianza Valledupar: Result & Stats

Llaneros

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Alianza Valledupar

4/26/2026

Primera A · Apertura - 18Estadio Bello Horizonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Llaneros43%

×Draw30%

Alianza Valledupar27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LlanerosExpected goals in this matchAlianza Valledupar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.89

Llaneros

1.19

Alianza Valledupar

0.89

Llaneros creates 34% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 48 away

0.93

creates per match

0.75

1.03

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Llaneros

0.93

Alianza Valledupar

0.75

allows per match

Llaneros

1.03

Alianza Valledupar

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Llaneros+0.00on par

Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llaneros ↓

Alianza Valledupar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Llaneros or draw

73%

Llaneros or Alianza Valledupar

70%

Draw or Alianza Valledupar

57%

Winning margin

Llaneros wins by 2+

19%

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Llaneros 1+ goals

70%

Llaneros 2+ goals

33%

Llaneros 3+ goals

12%

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals

59%

Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals

22%

Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Llaneros (draw refunded)

61%

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llaneros at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.03 · 29 matches

Alianza Valledupar away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.44 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llaneros attack 0.93 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.19

Alianza Valledupar attack 0.75 + Llaneros defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Llaneros scores more

43%

level

30%

Alianza Valledupar scores more

27%

Llaneros at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Llaneros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

A. Moralez

Llaneros · D

7.9

Match Events

45+1'

Jhon VásquezPenalty cancelled

46'

J. Escobar Salcedo← J. Medranda

60'

Pedro Franco

64'

Yeiner Londoño

65'

Juan ViverosRed card cancelled

66'

Juan Viveros

68'

J. Castro← B. Benitez

69'

J. Blanco← L. Marimon

72'

J. Valoyes← F. Pardo

79'

M. Martinez← C. Lucumi

79'

J. Castillo← Y. Londono

80'

Kelvin Osorio← K. Caicedo

84'

M. Sierra← H. H. Mena Posada

87'

F. Cantillo← W. Fernandez

90+4'

Marlon Sierra

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LlanerosAlianza

Overview

58%Possession42%

9Total Shots8

0.63Expected Goals (xG)0.23

7Corners2

12Fouls8

Shots

9Total Shots8

2On Target1

5Off Target3

2Blocked4

5Inside Box3

4Outside Box5

Passing

58%Possession42%

386Total Passes285

304Accurate Passes210

79%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

0.03Goals Prevented0.03

Discipline

12Fouls8

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides3