Alianza Valledupar 3–1 Llaneros: Result & Stats

Alianza Valledupar

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Llaneros

M. Gil 89'

C. Lucumi 33'

E. Torres 12'

J. Angulo 53'

9/27/2025

Primera A · Clausura - 13Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Alianza Valledupar45%

×Draw27%

Llaneros28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza ValleduparExpected goals in this matchLlaneros

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.04

Alianza Valledupar

1.38

Llaneros

1.04

Alianza Valledupar creates 33% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 30 away

1.32

creates per match

0.90

1.18

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Alianza Valledupar

1.32

Llaneros

0.90

allows per match

Alianza Valledupar

1.18

Llaneros

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par

Llaneros+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Valledupar ↓

Llaneros →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Alianza Valledupar or draw

72%

Alianza Valledupar or Llaneros

73%

Draw or Llaneros

55%

Winning margin

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+

21%

Llaneros wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals

75%

Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals

40%

Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals

16%

Llaneros 1+ goals

65%

Llaneros 2+ goals

28%

Llaneros 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)

61%

Llaneros (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Valledupar at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.18 · 114 matches

Llaneros away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Valledupar attack 1.32 + Llaneros defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.38

Llaneros attack 0.90 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Alianza Valledupar scores more

45%

level

27%

Llaneros scores more

28%

Alianza Valledupar at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Alianza Valledupar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

R. Manjarres

Alianza Valledupar · M

8.5

Match Events

12'

E. Torres↳ J. Castillo

16'

Andrés López

33'

C. Lucumi↳ K. Suarez

39'

J. E. Mina Chara← G. Montes

46'

Jaison Mina

46'

L. Miranda← E. Bodencer

53'

J. Angulo↳ D. Mantilla

67'

Y. Goez← B. Benitez

72'

S. A. Aponza Cantonil← E. Torres

72'

M. Gil← W. Fernandez

75'

N. Ospina← E. Restrepo

75'

B. Uruena← D. Mantilla

81'

Carlos Gonzalez

82'

F. Mosquera← J. Castillo

84'

85'

89'

90+2'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlianzaLlaneros

Overview

68%Possession32%

19Total Shots13

7Corners8

8Fouls9

Shots

19Total Shots13

11On Target1

5Off Target6

3Blocked6

13Inside Box6

6Outside Box7

Passing

68%Possession32%

528Total Passes245

472Accurate Passes178

89%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

0Saves8

Discipline

8Fouls9

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

5Offsides0

Match Recap: Alianza Valledupar vs Llaneros

Alianza Valledupar beat Llaneros 3-1 in Primera A on September 27, 2025.

Goals: E. Torres (12'), C. Lucumi (33'), J. Angulo (53'), M. Gil (89').

Alianza Valledupar controlled possession (68%) and registered 19 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau in Valledupar.

Alianza Valledupar vs Llaneros — Primera A 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Alianza Valledupar vs Llaneros