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Llaneros de Guanare vs Estudiantes Caracas — Primera División 2018

Llaneros de Guanare
Llaneros de Guanare
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Estudiantes Caracas
Estudiantes Caracas
8/25/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 6Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto (Guanare)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Llaneros de Guanare49%
×Draw23%
Estudiantes Caracas28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llaneros de Guanare
1.76
Estudiantes Caracas
1.28

Llaneros de Guanare creates 38% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 35 away

creates per match

Llaneros de Guanare
1.37
Estudiantes Caracas
1.03

allows per match

Llaneros de Guanare
1.53
Estudiantes Caracas
2.14

finishing

Llaneros de Guanare+0.00on par
Estudiantes Caracas+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llaneros de Guanare ↓

Estudiantes Caracas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Llaneros de Guanare or draw
72%
Llaneros de Guanare or Estudiantes Caracas
77%
Draw or Estudiantes Caracas
51%

Winning margin

Llaneros de Guanare wins by 2+
26%
Estudiantes Caracas wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Llaneros de Guanare 1+ goals
83%
Llaneros de Guanare 2+ goals
52%
Llaneros de Guanare 3+ goals
26%
Estudiantes Caracas 1+ goals
72%
Estudiantes Caracas 2+ goals
37%
Estudiantes Caracas 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Llaneros de Guanare (draw refunded)
63%
Estudiantes Caracas (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llaneros de Guanare at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Estudiantes Caracas away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.14 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llaneros de Guanare attack 1.37 + Estudiantes Caracas defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.76

Estudiantes Caracas attack 1.03 + Llaneros de Guanare defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Llaneros de Guanare scores more
49%
level
23%
Estudiantes Caracas scores more
28%

Llaneros de Guanare at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Llaneros de Guanare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Llaneros de Guanare vs Estudiantes Caracas

Llaneros de Guanare beat Estudiantes Caracas 3-1 in Primera División on August 25, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto (Guanare).