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Estudiantes Caracas vs Llaneros de Guanare — Primera División 2018

Estudiantes Caracas
Estudiantes Caracas
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Llaneros de Guanare
Llaneros de Guanare
3/3/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 6Estadio Olímpico Hermanos Ghersi Páez (Maracay)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Estudiantes Caracas45%
×Draw23%
Llaneros de Guanare32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estudiantes Caracas
1.75
Llaneros de Guanare
1.44

Estudiantes Caracas creates 22% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 20 away

creates per match

Estudiantes Caracas
1.00
Llaneros de Guanare
1.45

allows per match

Estudiantes Caracas
1.44
Llaneros de Guanare
2.50

finishing

Estudiantes Caracas+0.00on par
Llaneros de Guanare+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estudiantes Caracas ↓

Llaneros de Guanare →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Estudiantes Caracas or draw
68%
Estudiantes Caracas or Llaneros de Guanare
77%
Draw or Llaneros de Guanare
55%

Winning margin

Estudiantes Caracas wins by 2+
24%
Llaneros de Guanare wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Estudiantes Caracas 1+ goals
83%
Estudiantes Caracas 2+ goals
52%
Estudiantes Caracas 3+ goals
25%
Llaneros de Guanare 1+ goals
76%
Llaneros de Guanare 2+ goals
42%
Llaneros de Guanare 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Estudiantes Caracas (draw refunded)
59%
Llaneros de Guanare (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estudiantes Caracas at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.44 · 36 matches

Llaneros de Guanare away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.50 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estudiantes Caracas attack 1.00 + Llaneros de Guanare defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Llaneros de Guanare attack 1.45 + Estudiantes Caracas defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Estudiantes Caracas scores more
45%
level
23%
Llaneros de Guanare scores more
32%

Estudiantes Caracas at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Estudiantes Caracas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Estudiantes Caracas 3 – 2 Llaneros de Guanare

Estudiantes Caracas beat Llaneros de Guanare 3-2 in Primera División on March 3, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Hermanos Ghersi Páez (Maracay).