Llaneros de Guanare vs Atletico Venezuela

Llaneros de Guanare

CANC

20:00

Atletico Venezuela

10/11/2020

Primera División · Round 34

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Llaneros de Guanare41%

×Draw26%

Atletico Venezuela33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Llaneros de GuanareExpected goals in this matchAtletico Venezuela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.28

Llaneros de Guanare

1.45

Atletico Venezuela

1.28

Llaneros de Guanare creates 13% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 60 away

1.37

creates per match

1.03

1.53

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Llaneros de Guanare

1.37

Atletico Venezuela

1.03

allows per match

Llaneros de Guanare

1.53

Atletico Venezuela

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Llaneros de Guanare+0.00on par

Atletico Venezuela+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llaneros de Guanare ↓

Atletico Venezuela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Llaneros de Guanare or draw

67%

Llaneros de Guanare or Atletico Venezuela

74%

Draw or Atletico Venezuela

59%

Winning margin

Llaneros de Guanare wins by 2+

20%

Atletico Venezuela wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Llaneros de Guanare 1+ goals

77%

Llaneros de Guanare 2+ goals

42%

Llaneros de Guanare 3+ goals

18%

Atletico Venezuela 1+ goals

72%

Atletico Venezuela 2+ goals

37%

Atletico Venezuela 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Llaneros de Guanare (draw refunded)

55%

Atletico Venezuela (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llaneros de Guanare at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Atletico Venezuela away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.53 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llaneros de Guanare attack 1.37 + Atletico Venezuela defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.45

Atletico Venezuela attack 1.03 + Llaneros de Guanare defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Llaneros de Guanare scores more

41%

level

26%

Atletico Venezuela scores more

33%

Llaneros de Guanare at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Llaneros de Guanare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff