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Atletico Venezuela vs Llaneros de Guanare — Primera División 2018

Atletico Venezuela
Atletico Venezuela
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Llaneros de Guanare
Llaneros de Guanare
8/18/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 5Estadio Olímpico Hermanos Ghersi Páez (Maracay)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Atletico Venezuela50%
×Draw22%
Llaneros de Guanare27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Venezuela
1.90
Llaneros de Guanare
1.34

Atletico Venezuela creates 42% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 20 away

creates per match

Atletico Venezuela
1.29
Llaneros de Guanare
1.45

allows per match

Atletico Venezuela
1.24
Llaneros de Guanare
2.50

finishing

Atletico Venezuela+0.00on par
Llaneros de Guanare+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Venezuela ↓

Llaneros de Guanare →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Atletico Venezuela or draw
73%
Atletico Venezuela or Llaneros de Guanare
78%
Draw or Llaneros de Guanare
50%

Winning margin

Atletico Venezuela wins by 2+
28%
Llaneros de Guanare wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Atletico Venezuela 1+ goals
85%
Atletico Venezuela 2+ goals
56%
Atletico Venezuela 3+ goals
29%
Llaneros de Guanare 1+ goals
74%
Llaneros de Guanare 2+ goals
39%
Llaneros de Guanare 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Atletico Venezuela (draw refunded)
65%
Llaneros de Guanare (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Venezuela at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.24 · 59 matches

Llaneros de Guanare away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.50 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Venezuela attack 1.29 + Llaneros de Guanare defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.90

Llaneros de Guanare attack 1.45 + Atletico Venezuela defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Atletico Venezuela scores more
50%
level
22%
Llaneros de Guanare scores more
27%

Atletico Venezuela at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Atletico Venezuela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atletico Venezuela 1 – 4 Llaneros de Guanare

Llaneros de Guanare beat Atletico Venezuela 4-1 in Primera División on August 18, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Hermanos Ghersi Páez (Maracay).