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Llaneros de Guanare vs Angostura FC — Segunda División 2018

Llaneros de Guanare
Llaneros de Guanare
FT
1 – 0
Angostura FC
Angostura FC
11/18/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Championship Round - 5Estadio Farid Richa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Llaneros de Guanare38%
×Draw27%
Angostura FC36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llaneros de Guanare
1.31
Angostura FC
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 74 away

creates per match

Llaneros de Guanare
1.33
Angostura FC
1.05

allows per match

Llaneros de Guanare
1.48
Angostura FC
1.28

finishing

Llaneros de Guanare+0.00on par
Angostura FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llaneros de Guanare ↓

Angostura FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Llaneros de Guanare or draw
64%
Llaneros de Guanare or Angostura FC
73%
Draw or Angostura FC
62%

Winning margin

Llaneros de Guanare wins by 2+
17%
Angostura FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Llaneros de Guanare 1+ goals
73%
Llaneros de Guanare 2+ goals
38%
Llaneros de Guanare 3+ goals
14%
Angostura FC 1+ goals
72%
Angostura FC 2+ goals
36%
Angostura FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Llaneros de Guanare (draw refunded)
51%
Angostura FC (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llaneros de Guanare at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.48 · 42 matches

Angostura FC away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.28 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llaneros de Guanare attack 1.33 + Angostura FC defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.31

Angostura FC attack 1.05 + Llaneros de Guanare defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Llaneros de Guanare scores more
38%
level
27%
Angostura FC scores more
36%

Llaneros de Guanare at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Llaneros de Guanare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Llaneros de Guanare 1–0 Angostura FC

Llaneros de Guanare beat Angostura FC 1-0 in Segunda División on November 18, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Farid Richa in Barquisimeto.