Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Angostura FC vs Llaneros de Guanare — Segunda División 2018

Angostura FC
Angostura FC
FT
0 – 0
Llaneros de Guanare
Llaneros de Guanare
11/30/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Championship Round - 10Estadio Metropolitano de Fútbol de Lara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Angostura FC51%
×Draw26%
Llaneros de Guanare23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Angostura FC
1.52
Llaneros de Guanare
0.92

Angostura FC creates 65% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 43 away

creates per match

Angostura FC
1.50
Llaneros de Guanare
0.93

allows per match

Angostura FC
0.91
Llaneros de Guanare
1.53

finishing

Angostura FC+0.00on par
Llaneros de Guanare+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angostura FC ↓

Llaneros de Guanare →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Angostura FC or draw
77%
Angostura FC or Llaneros de Guanare
74%
Draw or Llaneros de Guanare
49%

Winning margin

Angostura FC wins by 2+
26%
Llaneros de Guanare wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Angostura FC 1+ goals
78%
Angostura FC 2+ goals
45%
Angostura FC 3+ goals
20%
Llaneros de Guanare 1+ goals
60%
Llaneros de Guanare 2+ goals
23%
Llaneros de Guanare 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Angostura FC (draw refunded)
69%
Llaneros de Guanare (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angostura FC at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.91 · 74 matches

Llaneros de Guanare away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.53 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angostura FC attack 1.50 + Llaneros de Guanare defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.52

Llaneros de Guanare attack 0.93 + Angostura FC defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Angostura FC scores more
51%
level
26%
Llaneros de Guanare scores more
23%

Angostura FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Angostura FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Angostura FC 0 – 0 Llaneros de Guanare

Angostura FC and Llaneros de Guanare drew 0-0 in Segunda División on November 30, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Fútbol de Lara in Barquisimeto.