Llanera 0–2 Sporting Gijón II: Result & Stats

Llanera

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Sporting Gijón II

Cristian Ebea 89'

Álex Oyón 58'

12/18/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 14Campo Municipal de Fútbol Pepe Quimarán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Llanera47%

×Draw26%

Sporting Gijón II27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LlaneraExpected goals in this matchSporting Gijón II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.10

Llanera

1.52

Sporting Gijón II

1.10

Llanera creates 38% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 86 away

2.27

creates per match

1.41

0.80

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

Llanera

2.27

Sporting Gijón II

1.41

allows per match

Llanera

0.80

Sporting Gijón II

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Llanera+0.00on par

Sporting Gijón II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llanera ↓

Sporting Gijón II →

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Llanera or draw

73%

Llanera or Sporting Gijón II

74%

Draw or Sporting Gijón II

53%

Winning margin

Llanera wins by 2+

24%

Sporting Gijón II wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Llanera 1+ goals

78%

Llanera 2+ goals

45%

Llanera 3+ goals

20%

Sporting Gijón II 1+ goals

67%

Sporting Gijón II 2+ goals

30%

Sporting Gijón II 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Llanera (draw refunded)

63%

Sporting Gijón II (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Llanera at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.80 · 75 matches

Sporting Gijón II away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.78 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Llanera attack 2.27 + Sporting Gijón II defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sporting Gijón II attack 1.41 + Llanera defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Llanera scores more

47%

level

26%

Sporting Gijón II scores more

27%

Llanera at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Llanera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'

Álex Oyón

65'

Alex Reyes← Gilberto Zapico

65'

Imad Fakir← Carlos Mundaka

72'

Omar Sampedro← Fernando Sánchez

72'

Jorge Montes← Alejandro Lozano

72'

Cristian Ebea← Álvaro Santamaría

78'

Juan Aspra← Álex Oyón

78'

Junior← Ariel Herrero

81'

Matheus← M. Medori

89'

Cristian Ebea

90+2'

Damián← Lucas Suárez

Llanera

Sporting

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Chuchi Collado

65'▲Alex Reyes←▼Gilberto Zapico

65'▲Imad Fakir←▼Carlos Mundaka

72'▲Omar Sampedro←▼Fernando Sánchez

81'▲Matheus←▼M. Medori

Llanera substitutes

ReyesFakirSampedroMatheus

Manager: Sergio Sánchez

72'▲Jorge Montes←▼Alejandro Lozano

72'▲Cristian Ebea←▼Álvaro Santamaría

78'▲Juan Aspra←▼Álex Oyón

78'▲Junior←▼Ariel Herrero

90+2'▲Damián←▼Lucas Suárez

Sporting Gijón II substitutes

MontesEbeaAspraJuniorDamián

Match Recap: Llanera vs Sporting Gijón II

Sporting Gijón II beat Llanera 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on December 18, 2022.

Goals: Álex Oyón (58'), Cristian Ebea (89').

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Fútbol Pepe Quimarán in Llanera.

Llanera vs Sporting Gijón II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Llanera vs Sporting Gijón II