Llanera 3–0 Colunga: Result & Stats

Llanera

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Colunga

Óscar Gago 73', 36'

Javi Sánchez 33'

3/26/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 26Campo Municipal de Fútbol Pepe Quimarán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Llanera58%

×Draw23%

Colunga19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LlaneraExpected goals in this matchColunga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.92

Llanera

1.81

Colunga

0.92

Llanera creates 97% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 113 away

2.27

creates per match

1.04

0.80

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Llanera

2.27

Colunga

1.04

allows per match

Llanera

0.80

Colunga

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Llanera+0.00on par

Colunga+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llanera ↓

Colunga →

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Llanera or draw

81%

Llanera or Colunga

77%

Draw or Colunga

42%

Winning margin

Llanera wins by 2+

33%

Colunga wins by 2+

Team goals

Llanera 1+ goals

84%

Llanera 2+ goals

54%

Llanera 3+ goals

27%

Colunga 1+ goals

60%

Colunga 2+ goals

23%

Colunga 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Llanera (draw refunded)

76%

Colunga (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Llanera at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.80 · 75 matches

Colunga away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Llanera attack 2.27 + Colunga defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.81

Colunga attack 1.04 + Llanera defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 58%?"

Llanera scores more

58%

level

23%

Colunga scores more

19%

Llanera at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Llanera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

Javi Sánchez

36'

Óscar Gago

46'

Juan Cueto← Mathe

62'

Omar Sampedro← Javi Sánchez

62'

Fernando Sánchez← M. Medori

65'

Miguel Estébanez← Marcos Iglesias

65'

Josín← Fernando Laserna

73'

Sergio Ordóñez← Davis Alejandro

73'

Yago González← Pablo Santos

73'

Óscar Gago

77'

Gilberto Zapico← Pablo Álvarez

77'

Imad Fakir← Óscar Gago

77'

Alex Reyes← Matheus

Llanera

Colunga

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Sánchez

⚽2

▼

Gago

Manager: Chuchi Collado

62'▲Omar Sampedro←▼Javi Sánchez

62'▲Fernando Sánchez←▼M. Medori

77'▲Gilberto Zapico←▼Pablo Álvarez

77'▲Imad Fakir←▼Óscar Gago

77'▲Alex Reyes←▼Matheus

Llanera substitutes

SampedroSánchezZapicoFakirReyes

Manager: Julio Arniella

46'▲Juan Cueto←▼Mathe

65'▲Miguel Estébanez←▼Marcos Iglesias

65'▲Josín←▼Fernando Laserna

73'▲Sergio Ordóñez←▼Davis Alejandro

73'▲Yago González←▼Pablo Santos

Colunga substitutes

CuetoEstébanezJosínOrdóñezGonzález

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Llanera 3–0 Colunga

Llanera beat Colunga 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 26, 2023.

Goals: Javi Sánchez (33'), Óscar Gago (36', 73').

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Fútbol Pepe Quimarán in Llanera.

Llanera vs Colunga — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Llanera 3–0 Colunga