Colunga 2–1 Llanera: Result & Stats

Colunga

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Llanera

Robert Martínez 52', 9'

A. Coundoul 38'

10/29/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 8Estadio Santianes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Colunga25%

×Draw25%

Llanera50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColungaExpected goals in this matchLlanera

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.59

Colunga

1.05

Llanera

1.59

Llanera creates 51% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 77 away

1.19

creates per match

1.91

1.27

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Colunga

1.19

Llanera

1.91

allows per match

Colunga

1.27

Llanera

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colunga+0.00on par

Llanera+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colunga ↓

Llanera →

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Colunga or draw

50%

Colunga or Llanera

75%

Draw or Llanera

75%

Winning margin

Colunga wins by 2+

Llanera wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Colunga 1+ goals

65%

Colunga 2+ goals

28%

Colunga 3+ goals

Llanera 1+ goals

80%

Llanera 2+ goals

47%

Llanera 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Colunga (draw refunded)

33%

Llanera (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Colunga at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.27 · 113 matches

Llanera away — creates 1.91, concedes 0.92 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Colunga attack 1.19 + Llanera defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.05

Llanera attack 1.91 + Colunga defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Colunga scores more

25%

level

25%

Llanera scores more

50%

Llanera at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Llanera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Robert Martínez

38'

A. Coundoul

52'

Robert Martínez

53'

Diego Iza← Robert Martínez

56'

Pablo Álvarez← Edu García

79'

Kike Meaurio← Matheus

79'

M. Medori← P. Otia

90'

Iván Salas← David Moreno

Colunga

Llanera

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽2

▼

Martínez

▼

Moreno

Manager: Pablo Pantiga

53'▲Diego Iza←▼Robert Martínez

90'▲Iván Salas←▼David Moreno

Colunga substitutes

IzaSalas

Manager: Chuchi Collado

56'▲Pablo Álvarez←▼Edu García

79'▲Kike Meaurio←▼Matheus

79'▲M. Medori←▼P. Otia

Llanera substitutes

ÁlvarezMeaurioMedori