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Ljutomer vs Brežice — 3. SNL - East 2020

Ljutomer
Ljutomer
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Brežice
Brežice
9/13/20253. SNL - East3. SNL - East · East - 5ŠRC Ljutomer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Ljutomer36%
×Draw23%
Brežice41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ljutomer
1.58
Brežice
1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

creates per match

Ljutomer
1.83
Brežice
1.58

allows per match

Ljutomer
1.83
Brežice
1.33

finishing

Ljutomer+0.00on par
Brežice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 64Under: 3664%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 65No: 3565%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ljutomer ↓

Brežice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Ljutomer or draw
59%
Ljutomer or Brežice
77%
Draw or Brežice
64%

Winning margin

Ljutomer wins by 2+
17%
Brežice wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Ljutomer 1+ goals
79%
Ljutomer 2+ goals
47%
Ljutomer 3+ goals
21%
Brežice 1+ goals
82%
Brežice 2+ goals
51%
Brežice 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Ljutomer (draw refunded)
46%
Brežice (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ljutomer at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

Brežice away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ljutomer attack 1.83 + Brežice defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.58

Brežice attack 1.58 + Ljutomer defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ljutomer scores more
36%
level
23%
Brežice scores more
41%

Brežice at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Brežice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ljutomer vs Brežice

Brežice beat Ljutomer 3-2 in 3. SNL - East on September 13, 2025.

The match was played at ŠRC Ljutomer in Ljutomer.