Brežice 2–0 Ljutomer: Result & Stats

Brežice

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ljutomer

3/28/2026

3. SNL - East · East - 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Brežice68%

×Draw18%

Ljutomer14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrežiceExpected goals in this matchLjutomer

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

0.92

Brežice

2.29

Ljutomer

0.92

Brežice creates 149% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

2.00

creates per match

1.08

0.75

allows per match

2.58

creates per match

Brežice

2.00

Ljutomer

1.08

allows per match

Brežice

0.75

Ljutomer

2.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brežice+0.00on par

Ljutomer+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brežice ↓

Ljutomer →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Brežice or draw

86%

Brežice or Ljutomer

82%

Draw or Ljutomer

32%

Winning margin

Brežice wins by 2+

45%

Ljutomer wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Brežice 1+ goals

90%

Brežice 2+ goals

66%

Brežice 3+ goals

40%

Ljutomer 1+ goals

60%

Ljutomer 2+ goals

23%

Ljutomer 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Brežice (draw refunded)

83%

Ljutomer (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brežice at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

Ljutomer away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.58 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brežice attack 2.00 + Ljutomer defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.29

Ljutomer attack 1.08 + Brežice defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Brežice scores more

68%

level

18%

Ljutomer scores more

14%

Brežice at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Brežice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff