Ljungskile SK 3–0 IFK Varnamo: Result & Stats

Ljungskile SK

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

IFK Varnamo

J. Westermark 87'

J. Brannefalk 56'

J. Svahn 45+2'

9/29/2019

Ettan - Södra · Round 25Uddevalla Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ljungskile SK48%

×Draw23%

IFK Varnamo29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ljungskile SKExpected goals in this matchIFK Varnamo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.33

Ljungskile SK

1.77

IFK Varnamo

1.33

Ljungskile SK creates 33% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 30 away

2.07

creates per match

1.57

1.09

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Ljungskile SK

2.07

IFK Varnamo

1.57

allows per match

Ljungskile SK

1.09

IFK Varnamo

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ljungskile SK+0.00on par

IFK Varnamo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ljungskile SK ↓

IFK Varnamo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Ljungskile SK or draw

71%

Ljungskile SK or IFK Varnamo

77%

Draw or IFK Varnamo

52%

Winning margin

Ljungskile SK wins by 2+

26%

IFK Varnamo wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Ljungskile SK 1+ goals

83%

Ljungskile SK 2+ goals

53%

Ljungskile SK 3+ goals

26%

IFK Varnamo 1+ goals

74%

IFK Varnamo 2+ goals

38%

IFK Varnamo 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Ljungskile SK (draw refunded)

62%

IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ljungskile SK at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.09 · 90 matches

IFK Varnamo away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ljungskile SK attack 2.07 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.77

IFK Varnamo attack 1.57 + Ljungskile SK defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ljungskile SK scores more

48%

level

23%

IFK Varnamo scores more

29%

Ljungskile SK at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ljungskile SK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+2'

J. Svahn

56'

J. Brannefalk

87'

J. Westermark

Ljungskile

IFK

⚽

⚽

⚽

Manager: J. Wålemark

Ljungskile SK substitutes

WestermarkØyOlssonPalmquistGarzaAdamczykWallinder

Manager: J. Thern

IFK Varnamo substitutes

LindbladSiljanderIsmailHellmanSchildtTelloLissette

Match Recap: Ljungskile SK vs IFK Varnamo

Ljungskile SK beat IFK Varnamo 3-0 in Ettan - Södra on September 29, 2019.

Goals: J. Svahn (45+2'), J. Brannefalk (56'), J. Westermark (87').

The match was played at Uddevalla Arena in Ljungskile.

Ljungskile SK vs IFK Varnamo — Ettan - Södra 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ljungskile SK vs IFK Varnamo