IFK Varnamo 0–2 Ljungskile SK: Result & Stats

IFK Varnamo

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Ljungskile SK

J. Westermark 71', 17'

6/2/2019

Ettan - Södra · Round 11Finnvedsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

IFK Varnamo49%

×Draw24%

Ljungskile SK27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK VarnamoExpected goals in this matchLjungskile SK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.21

IFK Varnamo

1.69

Ljungskile SK

1.21

IFK Varnamo creates 40% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 90 away

1.93

creates per match

1.51

0.90

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

IFK Varnamo

1.93

Ljungskile SK

1.51

allows per match

IFK Varnamo

0.90

Ljungskile SK

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IFK Varnamo+0.00on par

Ljungskile SK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Varnamo ↓

Ljungskile SK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

IFK Varnamo or draw

73%

IFK Varnamo or Ljungskile SK

76%

Draw or Ljungskile SK

51%

Winning margin

IFK Varnamo wins by 2+

26%

Ljungskile SK wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

IFK Varnamo 1+ goals

82%

IFK Varnamo 2+ goals

50%

IFK Varnamo 3+ goals

24%

Ljungskile SK 1+ goals

70%

Ljungskile SK 2+ goals

34%

Ljungskile SK 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)

64%

Ljungskile SK (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Varnamo at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.90 · 30 matches

Ljungskile SK away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.46 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Varnamo attack 1.93 + Ljungskile SK defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.69

Ljungskile SK attack 1.51 + IFK Varnamo defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

IFK Varnamo scores more

49%

level

24%

Ljungskile SK scores more

27%

IFK Varnamo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "IFK Varnamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

J. Westermark

71'

J. Westermark

IFK

Ljungskile

⚽2

Manager: J. Thern

IFK Varnamo substitutes

WinbergFeriziBägerfeldtErikssonAndonovskiLjung

Manager: J. Wålemark

Ljungskile SK substitutes

LundWestermarkBerggrenSvahnGarzaAdamczykWallinder

Ettan - Södra: IFK Varnamo 0–2 Ljungskile SK

Ljungskile SK beat IFK Varnamo 2-0 in Ettan - Södra on June 2, 2019.

Goals: J. Westermark (17', 71').

The match was played at Finnvedsvallen in Värnamo.

IFK Varnamo vs Ljungskile SK — Ettan - Södra 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Ettan - Södra: IFK Varnamo 0–2 Ljungskile SK