Ljungskile SK 2–2 Dalkurd FF: Result & Stats

Ljungskile SK

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Dalkurd FF

7/18/2020

Superettan · Round 7Uddevalla Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Ljungskile SK42%

×Draw27%

Dalkurd FF32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ljungskile SKExpected goals in this matchDalkurd FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.17

Ljungskile SK

1.38

Dalkurd FF

1.17

Ljungskile SK creates 18% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 49 away

1.09

creates per match

0.98

1.35

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Ljungskile SK

1.09

Dalkurd FF

0.98

allows per match

Ljungskile SK

1.35

Dalkurd FF

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ljungskile SK+0.00on par

Dalkurd FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ljungskile SK ↓

Dalkurd FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ljungskile SK or draw

68%

Ljungskile SK or Dalkurd FF

73%

Draw or Dalkurd FF

58%

Winning margin

Ljungskile SK wins by 2+

19%

Dalkurd FF wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Ljungskile SK 1+ goals

75%

Ljungskile SK 2+ goals

40%

Ljungskile SK 3+ goals

16%

Dalkurd FF 1+ goals

69%

Dalkurd FF 2+ goals

33%

Dalkurd FF 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ljungskile SK (draw refunded)

57%

Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ljungskile SK at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.35 · 23 matches

Dalkurd FF away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.67 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ljungskile SK attack 1.09 + Dalkurd FF defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.38

Dalkurd FF attack 0.98 + Ljungskile SK defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ljungskile SK scores more

42%

level

27%

Dalkurd FF scores more

32%

Ljungskile SK at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ljungskile SK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff