Dalkurd FF 2–0 Ljungskile SK: Result & Stats

Dalkurd FF

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ljungskile SK

10/10/2020

Superettan · Round 22Studenternas IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Dalkurd FF46%

×Draw25%

Ljungskile SK29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dalkurd FFExpected goals in this matchLjungskile SK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.18

Dalkurd FF

1.57

Ljungskile SK

1.18

Dalkurd FF creates 33% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 24 away

1.52

creates per match

0.92

1.44

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Dalkurd FF

1.52

Ljungskile SK

0.92

allows per match

Dalkurd FF

1.44

Ljungskile SK

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dalkurd FF+0.00on par

Ljungskile SK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalkurd FF ↓

Ljungskile SK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Dalkurd FF or draw

71%

Dalkurd FF or Ljungskile SK

75%

Draw or Ljungskile SK

54%

Winning margin

Dalkurd FF wins by 2+

24%

Ljungskile SK wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Dalkurd FF 1+ goals

79%

Dalkurd FF 2+ goals

46%

Dalkurd FF 3+ goals

21%

Ljungskile SK 1+ goals

69%

Ljungskile SK 2+ goals

33%

Ljungskile SK 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)

62%

Ljungskile SK (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalkurd FF at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.44 · 48 matches

Ljungskile SK away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.63 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalkurd FF attack 1.52 + Ljungskile SK defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.57

Ljungskile SK attack 0.92 + Dalkurd FF defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dalkurd FF scores more

46%

level

25%

Ljungskile SK scores more

29%

Dalkurd FF at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dalkurd FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff