Ljungsbro 1–3 Atvidabergs FF: Result & Stats

Ljungsbro

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Atvidabergs FF

9/28/2024

Division 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 23Maxivallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ljungsbro27%

×Draw23%

Atvidabergs FF49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LjungsbroExpected goals in this matchAtvidabergs FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.77

Ljungsbro

1.26

Atvidabergs FF

1.77

Atvidabergs FF creates 40% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 33 away

1.31

creates per match

2.09

1.46

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Ljungsbro

1.31

Atvidabergs FF

2.09

allows per match

Ljungsbro

1.46

Atvidabergs FF

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ljungsbro+0.00on par

Atvidabergs FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ljungsbro ↓

Atvidabergs FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Ljungsbro or draw

51%

Ljungsbro or Atvidabergs FF

77%

Draw or Atvidabergs FF

73%

Winning margin

Ljungsbro wins by 2+

11%

Atvidabergs FF wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Ljungsbro 1+ goals

72%

Ljungsbro 2+ goals

36%

Ljungsbro 3+ goals

13%

Atvidabergs FF 1+ goals

83%

Atvidabergs FF 2+ goals

53%

Atvidabergs FF 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Ljungsbro (draw refunded)

36%

Atvidabergs FF (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ljungsbro at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

Atvidabergs FF away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.21 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ljungsbro attack 1.31 + Atvidabergs FF defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.26

Atvidabergs FF attack 2.09 + Ljungsbro defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ljungsbro scores more

27%

level

23%

Atvidabergs FF scores more

49%

Atvidabergs FF at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Atvidabergs FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff