Atvidabergs FF 1–1 Ljungsbro: Result & Stats

Atvidabergs FF

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Ljungsbro

6/3/2024

Division 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 10Kopparvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Atvidabergs FF69%

×Draw16%

Ljungsbro15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atvidabergs FFExpected goals in this matchLjungsbro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.80

1.27

Atvidabergs FF

2.80

Ljungsbro

1.27

Atvidabergs FF creates 120% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 13 away

2.53

creates per match

1.38

1.16

allows per match

3.08

creates per match

Atvidabergs FF

2.53

Ljungsbro

1.38

allows per match

Atvidabergs FF

1.16

Ljungsbro

3.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atvidabergs FF+0.00on par

Ljungsbro+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atvidabergs FF ↓

Ljungsbro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Atvidabergs FF or draw

85%

Atvidabergs FF or Ljungsbro

84%

Draw or Ljungsbro

31%

Winning margin

Atvidabergs FF wins by 2+

48%

Ljungsbro wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Atvidabergs FF 1+ goals

94%

Atvidabergs FF 2+ goals

76%

Atvidabergs FF 3+ goals

52%

Ljungsbro 1+ goals

72%

Ljungsbro 2+ goals

36%

Ljungsbro 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Atvidabergs FF (draw refunded)

82%

Ljungsbro (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atvidabergs FF at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.16 · 32 matches

Ljungsbro away — creates 1.38, concedes 3.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atvidabergs FF attack 2.53 + Ljungsbro defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.80

Ljungsbro attack 1.38 + Atvidabergs FF defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Atvidabergs FF scores more

69%

level

16%

Ljungsbro scores more

15%

Atvidabergs FF at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Atvidabergs FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff