Ljubić Prnjavor 1–1 FK Romanija Pale

Ljubić Prnjavor

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

FK Romanija Pale

5/24/2025

1st League - RS · RS - 33Stadion Borik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Ljubić Prnjavor57%

×Draw23%

FK Romanija Pale20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ljubić PrnjavorExpected goals in this matchFK Romanija Pale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.00

Ljubić Prnjavor

1.84

FK Romanija Pale

1.00

Ljubić Prnjavor creates 84% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 49 away

1.84

creates per match

0.80

1.20

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Ljubić Prnjavor

1.84

FK Romanija Pale

0.80

allows per match

Ljubić Prnjavor

1.20

FK Romanija Pale

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ljubić Prnjavor+0.00on par

FK Romanija Pale+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ljubić Prnjavor ↓

FK Romanija Pale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Ljubić Prnjavor or draw

80%

Ljubić Prnjavor or FK Romanija Pale

77%

Draw or FK Romanija Pale

43%

Winning margin

Ljubić Prnjavor wins by 2+

33%

FK Romanija Pale wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Ljubić Prnjavor 1+ goals

84%

Ljubić Prnjavor 2+ goals

55%

Ljubić Prnjavor 3+ goals

28%

FK Romanija Pale 1+ goals

63%

FK Romanija Pale 2+ goals

26%

FK Romanija Pale 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Ljubić Prnjavor (draw refunded)

74%

FK Romanija Pale (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ljubić Prnjavor at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.20 · 81 matches

FK Romanija Pale away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.84 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ljubić Prnjavor attack 1.84 + FK Romanija Pale defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.84

FK Romanija Pale attack 0.80 + Ljubić Prnjavor defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Ljubić Prnjavor scores more

57%

level

23%

FK Romanija Pale scores more

20%

Ljubić Prnjavor at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ljubić Prnjavor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff