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FK Romanija Pale vs Ljubić Prnjavor — 1st League - RS 2019

FK Romanija Pale
FK Romanija Pale
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Ljubić Prnjavor
Ljubić Prnjavor
11/24/20231st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 17Stadion FK Romanija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

FK Romanija Pale59%
×Draw23%
Ljubić Prnjavor18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Romanija Pale
1.82
Ljubić Prnjavor
0.89

FK Romanija Pale creates 104% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 81 away

creates per match

FK Romanija Pale
1.37
Ljubić Prnjavor
0.81

allows per match

FK Romanija Pale
0.96
Ljubić Prnjavor
2.27

finishing

FK Romanija Pale+0.00on par
Ljubić Prnjavor+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Romanija Pale ↓

Ljubić Prnjavor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

FK Romanija Pale or draw
82%
FK Romanija Pale or Ljubić Prnjavor
77%
Draw or Ljubić Prnjavor
41%

Winning margin

FK Romanija Pale wins by 2+
34%
Ljubić Prnjavor wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FK Romanija Pale 1+ goals
84%
FK Romanija Pale 2+ goals
54%
FK Romanija Pale 3+ goals
27%
Ljubić Prnjavor 1+ goals
59%
Ljubić Prnjavor 2+ goals
22%
Ljubić Prnjavor 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

FK Romanija Pale (draw refunded)
77%
Ljubić Prnjavor (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Romanija Pale at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.96 · 49 matches

Ljubić Prnjavor away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.27 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Romanija Pale attack 1.37 + Ljubić Prnjavor defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.82

Ljubić Prnjavor attack 0.81 + FK Romanija Pale defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

FK Romanija Pale scores more
59%
level
23%
Ljubić Prnjavor scores more
18%

FK Romanija Pale at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "FK Romanija Pale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Romanija Pale vs Ljubić Prnjavor

FK Romanija Pale beat Ljubić Prnjavor 2-0 in 1st League - RS on November 24, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Romanija in Pale.