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Ljubić Prnjavor vs FK Jedinstvo Brcko — 1st League - RS 2019

Ljubić Prnjavor
Ljubić Prnjavor
FT
3 – 2
FK Jedinstvo Brcko
FK Jedinstvo Brcko
3/31/20211st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 20Stadion Borik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Ljubić Prnjavor68%
×Draw17%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ljubić Prnjavor
2.47
FK Jedinstvo Brcko
1.03

Ljubić Prnjavor creates 140% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 21 away

creates per match

Ljubić Prnjavor
1.84
FK Jedinstvo Brcko
0.86

allows per match

Ljubić Prnjavor
1.20
FK Jedinstvo Brcko
3.10

finishing

Ljubić Prnjavor+0.00on par
FK Jedinstvo Brcko+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ljubić Prnjavor ↓

FK Jedinstvo Brcko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Ljubić Prnjavor or draw
86%
Ljubić Prnjavor or FK Jedinstvo Brcko
83%
Draw or FK Jedinstvo Brcko
32%

Winning margin

Ljubić Prnjavor wins by 2+
46%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ljubić Prnjavor 1+ goals
91%
Ljubić Prnjavor 2+ goals
70%
Ljubić Prnjavor 3+ goals
44%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko 1+ goals
64%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko 2+ goals
28%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ljubić Prnjavor (draw refunded)
83%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ljubić Prnjavor at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.20 · 81 matches

FK Jedinstvo Brcko away — creates 0.86, concedes 3.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ljubić Prnjavor attack 1.84 + FK Jedinstvo Brcko defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 2.47

FK Jedinstvo Brcko attack 0.86 + Ljubić Prnjavor defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Ljubić Prnjavor scores more
68%
level
17%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko scores more
14%

Ljubić Prnjavor at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Ljubić Prnjavor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ljubić Prnjavor vs FK Jedinstvo Brcko

Ljubić Prnjavor beat FK Jedinstvo Brcko 3-2 in 1st League - RS on March 31, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Borik in Prnjavor.