Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FK Jedinstvo Brcko vs Ljubić Prnjavor — 1st League - RS 2019

FK Jedinstvo Brcko
FK Jedinstvo Brcko
FT
1 – 1
Ljubić Prnjavor
Ljubić Prnjavor
9/5/20201st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 5Stadion FK Jedinstvo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

FK Jedinstvo Brcko48%
×Draw24%
Ljubić Prnjavor28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Jedinstvo Brcko
1.66
Ljubić Prnjavor
1.20

FK Jedinstvo Brcko creates 38% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 81 away

creates per match

FK Jedinstvo Brcko
1.05
Ljubić Prnjavor
0.81

allows per match

FK Jedinstvo Brcko
1.59
Ljubić Prnjavor
2.27

finishing

FK Jedinstvo Brcko+0.00on par
Ljubić Prnjavor+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Jedinstvo Brcko ↓

Ljubić Prnjavor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

FK Jedinstvo Brcko or draw
72%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko or Ljubić Prnjavor
76%
Draw or Ljubić Prnjavor
52%

Winning margin

FK Jedinstvo Brcko wins by 2+
25%
Ljubić Prnjavor wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FK Jedinstvo Brcko 1+ goals
81%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko 2+ goals
49%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko 3+ goals
23%
Ljubić Prnjavor 1+ goals
70%
Ljubić Prnjavor 2+ goals
34%
Ljubić Prnjavor 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FK Jedinstvo Brcko (draw refunded)
63%
Ljubić Prnjavor (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Jedinstvo Brcko at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

Ljubić Prnjavor away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.27 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Jedinstvo Brcko attack 1.05 + Ljubić Prnjavor defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.66

Ljubić Prnjavor attack 0.81 + FK Jedinstvo Brcko defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FK Jedinstvo Brcko scores more
48%
level
24%
Ljubić Prnjavor scores more
28%

FK Jedinstvo Brcko at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FK Jedinstvo Brcko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Jedinstvo Brcko vs Ljubić Prnjavor

FK Jedinstvo Brcko and Ljubić Prnjavor drew 1-1 in 1st League - RS on September 5, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion FK Jedinstvo in Brčko.