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Ljubić Prnjavor vs Budućnost Pilica — 1st League - RS 2019

Ljubić Prnjavor
Ljubić Prnjavor
FT
3 – 2
Budućnost Pilica
Budućnost Pilica
10/16/20211st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 10Stadion Borik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ljubić Prnjavor78%
×Draw14%
Budućnost Pilica8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ljubić Prnjavor
2.75
Budućnost Pilica
0.80

Ljubić Prnjavor creates 244% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 15 away

creates per match

Ljubić Prnjavor
1.84
Budućnost Pilica
0.40

allows per match

Ljubić Prnjavor
1.20
Budućnost Pilica
3.67

finishing

Ljubić Prnjavor+0.00on par
Budućnost Pilica+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ljubić Prnjavor ↓

Budućnost Pilica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Ljubić Prnjavor or draw
92%
Ljubić Prnjavor or Budućnost Pilica
86%
Draw or Budućnost Pilica
22%

Winning margin

Ljubić Prnjavor wins by 2+
57%
Budućnost Pilica wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Ljubić Prnjavor 1+ goals
93%
Ljubić Prnjavor 2+ goals
75%
Ljubić Prnjavor 3+ goals
51%
Budućnost Pilica 1+ goals
55%
Budućnost Pilica 2+ goals
19%
Budućnost Pilica 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ljubić Prnjavor (draw refunded)
90%
Budućnost Pilica (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ljubić Prnjavor at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.20 · 81 matches

Budućnost Pilica away — creates 0.40, concedes 3.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ljubić Prnjavor attack 1.84 + Budućnost Pilica defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.75

Budućnost Pilica attack 0.40 + Ljubić Prnjavor defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Ljubić Prnjavor scores more
78%
level
14%
Budućnost Pilica scores more
8%

Ljubić Prnjavor at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Ljubić Prnjavor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: Ljubić Prnjavor 3–2 Budućnost Pilica

Ljubić Prnjavor beat Budućnost Pilica 3-2 in 1st League - RS on October 16, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Borik in Prnjavor.