Budućnost Pilica 1–3 Ljubić Prnjavor

Budućnost Pilica

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Ljubić Prnjavor

4/27/2022

1st League - RS · RS - 25Stadion FK Budućnost Pilica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Budućnost Pilica37%

×Draw23%

Ljubić Prnjavor40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Budućnost PilicaExpected goals in this matchLjubić Prnjavor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.64

Budućnost Pilica

1.57

Ljubić Prnjavor

1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 81 away

0.87

creates per match

0.81

2.47

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Budućnost Pilica

0.87

Ljubić Prnjavor

0.81

allows per match

Budućnost Pilica

2.47

Ljubić Prnjavor

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Budućnost Pilica+0.00on par

Ljubić Prnjavor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budućnost Pilica ↓

Ljubić Prnjavor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Budućnost Pilica or draw

60%

Budućnost Pilica or Ljubić Prnjavor

77%

Draw or Ljubić Prnjavor

63%

Winning margin

Budućnost Pilica wins by 2+

18%

Ljubić Prnjavor wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Budućnost Pilica 1+ goals

79%

Budućnost Pilica 2+ goals

46%

Budućnost Pilica 3+ goals

21%

Ljubić Prnjavor 1+ goals

81%

Ljubić Prnjavor 2+ goals

49%

Ljubić Prnjavor 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Budućnost Pilica (draw refunded)

48%

Ljubić Prnjavor (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budućnost Pilica at home — creates 0.87, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

Ljubić Prnjavor away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.27 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budućnost Pilica attack 0.87 + Ljubić Prnjavor defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.57

Ljubić Prnjavor attack 0.81 + Budućnost Pilica defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Budućnost Pilica scores more

37%

level

23%

Ljubić Prnjavor scores more

40%

Ljubić Prnjavor at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ljubić Prnjavor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff