Livyi Bereh 6–0 Kremin': Result & Stats

Livyi Bereh

FT

6 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Kremin'

9/17/2023

Persha Liga · Round 8Stadion Livyi Bereh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Livyi Bereh72%

×Draw17%

Kremin'11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Livyi BerehExpected goals in this matchKremin'

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.32

0.78

Livyi Bereh

2.32

Kremin'

0.78

Livyi Bereh creates 197% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 78 away

2.38

creates per match

0.87

0.69

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

Livyi Bereh

2.38

Kremin'

0.87

allows per match

Livyi Bereh

0.69

Kremin'

2.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Livyi Bereh+0.00on par

Kremin'+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Livyi Bereh ↓

Kremin' →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Livyi Bereh or draw

89%

Livyi Bereh or Kremin'

83%

Draw or Kremin'

28%

Winning margin

Livyi Bereh wins by 2+

48%

Kremin' wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Livyi Bereh 1+ goals

90%

Livyi Bereh 2+ goals

67%

Livyi Bereh 3+ goals

40%

Kremin' 1+ goals

54%

Kremin' 2+ goals

18%

Kremin' 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Livyi Bereh (draw refunded)

87%

Kremin' (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Livyi Bereh at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.69 · 29 matches

Kremin' away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.26 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Livyi Bereh attack 2.38 + Kremin' defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 2.32

Kremin' attack 0.87 + Livyi Bereh defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Livyi Bereh scores more

72%

level

17%

Kremin' scores more

11%

Livyi Bereh at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Livyi Bereh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff