Kremin' 0–1 Livyi Bereh: Result & Stats

Kremin'

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Livyi Bereh

11/19/2023

Persha Liga · Round 17Kremin'-Arena im. Olega Babaeva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Kremin'24%

×Draw27%

Livyi Bereh49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kremin'Expected goals in this matchLivyi Bereh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.89

1.40

Kremin'

0.89

Livyi Bereh

1.40

Livyi Bereh creates 57% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 29 away

1.01

creates per match

1.38

1.42

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

Kremin'

1.01

Livyi Bereh

1.38

allows per match

Kremin'

1.42

Livyi Bereh

0.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kremin'+0.00on par

Livyi Bereh+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kremin' ↓

Livyi Bereh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–114%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Kremin' or draw

51%

Kremin' or Livyi Bereh

73%

Draw or Livyi Bereh

76%

Winning margin

Kremin' wins by 2+

8%

Livyi Bereh wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Kremin' 1+ goals

59%

Kremin' 2+ goals

22%

Kremin' 3+ goals

6%

Livyi Bereh 1+ goals

75%

Livyi Bereh 2+ goals

41%

Livyi Bereh 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Kremin' (draw refunded)

33%

Livyi Bereh (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kremin' at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.42 · 76 matches

Livyi Bereh away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.76 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kremin' attack 1.01 + Livyi Bereh defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.89

Livyi Bereh attack 1.38 + Kremin' defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kremin' scores more

24%

level

27%

Livyi Bereh scores more

49%

Livyi Bereh at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Livyi Bereh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff