Livingston 1–2 ST Johnstone: Result & Stats

Livingston

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

ST Johnstone

S. Pittman 83'

S. Rooney 51'

S. Tanser 45+2'

2/6/2021

Premiership · 1st Phase - 28Tony Macaroni Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

Livingston42%

×Draw27%

ST Johnstone31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LivingstonExpected goals in this matchST Johnstone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.09

Livingston

1.33

ST Johnstone

1.09

Livingston creates 22% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 115 away

1.16

creates per match

0.93

1.25

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Livingston

1.16

ST Johnstone

0.93

allows per match

Livingston

1.25

ST Johnstone

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Livingston+0.00on par

ST Johnstone+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Livingston ↓

ST Johnstone →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Livingston or draw

69%

Livingston or ST Johnstone

73%

Draw or ST Johnstone

58%

Winning margin

Livingston wins by 2+

19%

ST Johnstone wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Livingston 1+ goals

74%

Livingston 2+ goals

38%

Livingston 3+ goals

15%

ST Johnstone 1+ goals

66%

ST Johnstone 2+ goals

30%

ST Johnstone 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Livingston (draw refunded)

58%

ST Johnstone (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Livingston at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.25 · 122 matches

ST Johnstone away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.51 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Livingston attack 1.16 + ST Johnstone defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.33

ST Johnstone attack 0.93 + Livingston defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Livingston scores more

42%

level

27%

ST Johnstone scores more

31%

Livingston at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Livingston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

S. Rooney

ST Johnstone · M

8.5

Match Events

37'

Jason Kerr

45'

Aaron Taylor-Sinclair

45+2'

S. Tanser

46'

J. Emmanuel-Thomas← A. Forrest

51'

65'

69'

75'

83'

90+2'

M. O'Halloran← C. Kane

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LivingstonST

Overview

58%Possession42%

7Total Shots15

1Corners7

17Fouls16

Shots

7Total Shots15

3On Target6

1Off Target4

3Blocked5

3Inside Box10

4Outside Box5

Passing

58%Possession42%

397Total Passes269

254Accurate Passes148

64%Pass Accuracy55%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls16

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides3