Livingston 1–3 Motherwell: Result & Stats

Livingston

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Motherwell

2/28/2024

Premiership · 1st Phase - 28Tony Macaroni Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Livingston39%

×Draw26%

Motherwell35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LivingstonExpected goals in this matchMotherwell

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.29

Livingston

1.37

Motherwell

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.18

creates per match

1.22

1.36

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Livingston

1.18

Motherwell

1.22

allows per match

Livingston

1.36

Motherwell

1.56

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

Livingston+0.15scores more

Motherwell+0.34scores more

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Livingston ↓

Motherwell →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Livingston or draw

65%

Livingston or Motherwell

74%

Draw or Motherwell

61%

Winning margin

Livingston wins by 2+

18%

Motherwell wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Livingston 1+ goals

75%

Livingston 2+ goals

40%

Livingston 3+ goals

16%

Motherwell 1+ goals

72%

Motherwell 2+ goals

37%

Motherwell 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Livingston (draw refunded)

52%

Motherwell (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Livingston at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.36 · 9 matches

Motherwell away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Livingston attack 1.18 + Motherwell defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.37

Motherwell attack 1.22 + Livingston defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Livingston scores more

39%

level

26%

Motherwell scores more

35%

Livingston at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Livingston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff