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Livingston vs Inverness CT — League #180 2026

Livingston
Livingston
Preview
14:00
Inverness CT
Inverness CT
9/19/2026League #180League #180 · Round 7The Home of the Set Fare Arena
Big match
38%
Inverness CT
model favours
33%29%38%

Livingston are unbeaten in 6 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Livingston33%
×Draw29%
Inverness CT38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Livingston
1.09
Inverness CT
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 27 away

creates per match

Livingston
1.00
Inverness CT
1.63

allows per match

Livingston
0.73
Inverness CT
1.19

finishing

Livingston+0.00on par
Inverness CT+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Livingston ↓

Inverness CT →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Livingston or draw
62%
Livingston or Inverness CT
71%
Draw or Inverness CT
67%

Winning margin

Livingston wins by 2+
13%
Inverness CT wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Livingston 1+ goals
66%
Livingston 2+ goals
30%
Livingston 3+ goals
10%
Inverness CT 1+ goals
69%
Inverness CT 2+ goals
33%
Inverness CT 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Livingston (draw refunded)
47%
Inverness CT (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Livingston at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.73 · 26 matches

Inverness CT away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Livingston attack 1.00 + Inverness CT defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.09

Inverness CT attack 1.63 + Livingston defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Livingston scores more
33%
level
29%
Inverness CT scores more
38%

Inverness CT at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Inverness CT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Livingston have scored in 7 games running
  • 38% of Livingston’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • 36% of Inverness CT’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Livingston
WDWWW
CT
WWDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Livingston vs Inverness CT — Match Preview

Livingston face Inverness CT on September 19, 2026 in this League #180 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Livingston host Inverness CT at The Home of the Set Fare Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.