Inverness CT 1–0 Livingston: Result & Stats

Inverness CT

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Livingston

2/8/2020

FA Cup · 5th RoundTulloch Caledonian Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Inverness CT49%

×Draw23%

Livingston29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inverness CTExpected goals in this matchLivingston

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.40

Inverness CT

1.88

Livingston

1.40

Inverness CT creates 34% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

1.75

creates per match

1.67

1.13

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Inverness CT

1.75

Livingston

1.67

allows per match

Inverness CT

1.13

Livingston

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inverness CT+0.00on par

Livingston+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inverness CT ↓

Livingston →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Inverness CT or draw

71%

Inverness CT or Livingston

77%

Draw or Livingston

51%

Winning margin

Inverness CT wins by 2+

27%

Livingston wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Inverness CT 1+ goals

85%

Inverness CT 2+ goals

56%

Inverness CT 3+ goals

29%

Livingston 1+ goals

75%

Livingston 2+ goals

41%

Livingston 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Inverness CT (draw refunded)

63%

Livingston (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inverness CT at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Livingston away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inverness CT attack 1.75 + Livingston defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

Livingston attack 1.67 + Inverness CT defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Inverness CT scores more

49%

level

23%

Livingston scores more

29%

Inverness CT at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Inverness CT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff