Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Livingston vs Inverness CT — FA Cup 2019

Livingston
Livingston
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Inverness CT
Inverness CT
2/11/2023FA CupFA Cup · 5th RoundTony Macaroni Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Livingston43%
×Draw23%
Inverness CT34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Livingston
1.69
Inverness CT
1.48

Livingston creates 14% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

creates per match

Livingston
1.57
Inverness CT
2.10

allows per match

Livingston
0.86
Inverness CT
1.80

finishing

Livingston+0.00on par
Inverness CT+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Livingston ↓

Inverness CT →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Livingston or draw
66%
Livingston or Inverness CT
77%
Draw or Inverness CT
57%

Winning margin

Livingston wins by 2+
22%
Inverness CT wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Livingston 1+ goals
82%
Livingston 2+ goals
50%
Livingston 3+ goals
24%
Inverness CT 1+ goals
77%
Inverness CT 2+ goals
43%
Inverness CT 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Livingston (draw refunded)
56%
Inverness CT (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Livingston at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Inverness CT away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Livingston attack 1.57 + Inverness CT defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.69

Inverness CT attack 2.10 + Livingston defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Livingston scores more
43%
level
23%
Inverness CT scores more
34%

Livingston at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Livingston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Livingston vs Inverness CT

Inverness CT beat Livingston 3-0 in FA Cup on February 11, 2023.

The match was played at Tony Macaroni Arena in Livingston.