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Livingston vs Falkirk — Premiership 2025

Livingston
Livingston
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Falkirk
Falkirk
2/4/2026PremiershipPremiership · 1st Phase - 25The Home of the Set Fare Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Livingston34%
×Draw29%
Falkirk37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Livingston
1.10
Falkirk
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

creates per match

Livingston
1.01
Falkirk
0.96

allows per match

Livingston
1.37
Falkirk
1.19

finishing

Livingston-0.01on par
Falkirk+0.15scores more

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Livingston ↓

Falkirk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Livingston or draw
63%
Livingston or Falkirk
71%
Draw or Falkirk
66%

Winning margin

Livingston wins by 2+
14%
Falkirk wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Livingston 1+ goals
67%
Livingston 2+ goals
30%
Livingston 3+ goals
10%
Falkirk 1+ goals
69%
Falkirk 2+ goals
33%
Falkirk 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Livingston (draw refunded)
48%
Falkirk (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Livingston at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.37 · 7 matches

Falkirk away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.19 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Livingston attack 1.01 + Falkirk defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.10

Falkirk attack 0.96 + Livingston defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Livingston scores more
34%
level
29%
Falkirk scores more
37%

Falkirk at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Falkirk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premiership: Livingston 1–2 Falkirk

Falkirk beat Livingston 2-1 in Premiership on February 4, 2026.

The match was played at The Home of the Set Fare Arena in Livingston.