Falkirk 1–1 Livingston: Result & Stats

Falkirk

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Livingston

B. Graham 16' (pen)

D. Wilson 89'

11/8/2025

Premiership · 1st Phase - 12Falkirk Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Falkirk50%

×Draw23%

Livingston26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FalkirkExpected goals in this matchLivingston

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.22

Falkirk

1.77

Livingston

1.22

Falkirk creates 45% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 7 away

1.66

creates per match

1.11

1.32

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Falkirk

1.66

Livingston

1.11

allows per match

Falkirk

1.32

Livingston

1.89

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Falkirk+0.34scores more

Livingston-0.11scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Falkirk ↓

Livingston →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Falkirk or draw

74%

Falkirk or Livingston

77%

Draw or Livingston

50%

Winning margin

Falkirk wins by 2+

27%

Livingston wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Falkirk 1+ goals

83%

Falkirk 2+ goals

53%

Falkirk 3+ goals

26%

Livingston 1+ goals

70%

Livingston 2+ goals

34%

Livingston 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Falkirk (draw refunded)

66%

Livingston (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Falkirk at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.32 · 13 matches

Livingston away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.89 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Falkirk attack 1.66 + Livingston defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.77

Livingston attack 1.11 + Falkirk defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Falkirk scores more

50%

level

23%

Livingston scores more

26%

Falkirk at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Falkirk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

D. Wilson

Livingston · D

7.9

Match Events

15'

Calvin MillerPenalty confirmed

16'

B. GrahamPenalty

18'

23'

58'

61'

62'

H. Cartwright← D. Tait

62'

T. Samuel-Ogunsuyi← B. Graham

68'

A. Winter← L. Smith

68'

R. Muirhead← J. Bokila

69'

73'

75'

75'

76'

A. Agyeman← K. Wilson

77'

S. Arfield← E. Williams

89'

Filip Lissah

89'

D. Wilson↳ G. Carey

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FalkirkLivingston

Overview

43%Possession57%

12Total Shots11

1.56Expected Goals (xG)1.00

6Corners1

19Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots11

2On Target5

6Off Target4

4Blocked2

8Inside Box5

4Outside Box6

Passing

43%Possession57%

344Total Passes463

248Accurate Passes349

72%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

19Fouls14

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0

Premiership: Falkirk 1–1 Livingston

Falkirk and Livingston drew 1-1 in Premiership on November 8, 2025.

Goals: B. Graham (16' pen), D. Wilson (89').

Livingston controlled possession (57%) and registered 11 shots to 12.

The match was played at Falkirk Stadium in Falkirk.

Falkirk vs Livingston — Premiership 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premiership: Falkirk 1–1 Livingston