Livingston 2–1 Dundee Utd: Result & Stats

Livingston

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Dundee Utd

5/20/2023

Premiership · Relegation Round - 3Tony Macaroni Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Livingston43%

×Draw25%

Dundee Utd31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LivingstonExpected goals in this matchDundee Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.23

Livingston

1.49

Dundee Utd

1.23

Livingston creates 21% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

1.18

creates per match

1.10

1.36

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Livingston

1.18

Dundee Utd

1.10

allows per match

Livingston

1.36

Dundee Utd

1.80

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

-0.02on par

finishing

Livingston+0.15scores more

Dundee Utd-0.02on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Livingston ↓

Dundee Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Livingston or draw

69%

Livingston or Dundee Utd

75%

Draw or Dundee Utd

57%

Winning margin

Livingston wins by 2+

21%

Dundee Utd wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Livingston 1+ goals

77%

Livingston 2+ goals

44%

Livingston 3+ goals

19%

Dundee Utd 1+ goals

71%

Dundee Utd 2+ goals

35%

Dundee Utd 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Livingston (draw refunded)

58%

Dundee Utd (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Livingston at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.36 · 9 matches

Dundee Utd away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.80 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Livingston attack 1.18 + Dundee Utd defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.49

Dundee Utd attack 1.10 + Livingston defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Livingston scores more

43%

level

25%

Dundee Utd scores more

31%

Livingston at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Livingston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premiership: Livingston 2–1 Dundee Utd

Livingston beat Dundee Utd 2-1 in Premiership on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Tony Macaroni Arena in Livingston.

Livingston vs Dundee Utd — Premiership 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Premiership: Livingston 2–1 Dundee Utd