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Livingston vs Dundee Utd — Premiership 2025

Livingston
Livingston
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Dundee Utd
Dundee Utd
12/30/2025PremiershipPremiership · 1st Phase - 20The Home of the Set Fare Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Livingston43%
×Draw25%
Dundee Utd32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Livingston
1.52
Dundee Utd
1.28

Livingston creates 19% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

creates per match

Livingston
1.23
Dundee Utd
1.16

allows per match

Livingston
1.40
Dundee Utd
1.80

finishing

Livingston-0.03on par
Dundee Utd+0.01on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Livingston ↓

Dundee Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Livingston or draw
68%
Livingston or Dundee Utd
75%
Draw or Dundee Utd
57%

Winning margin

Livingston wins by 2+
21%
Dundee Utd wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Livingston 1+ goals
78%
Livingston 2+ goals
45%
Livingston 3+ goals
20%
Dundee Utd 1+ goals
72%
Dundee Utd 2+ goals
37%
Dundee Utd 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Livingston (draw refunded)
57%
Dundee Utd (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Livingston at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Dundee Utd away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.80 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Livingston attack 1.23 + Dundee Utd defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.52

Dundee Utd attack 1.16 + Livingston defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Livingston scores more
43%
level
25%
Dundee Utd scores more
32%

Livingston at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Livingston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premiership: Livingston 1–3 Dundee Utd

Dundee Utd beat Livingston 3-1 in Premiership on December 30, 2025.

The match was played at The Home of the Set Fare Arena in Livingston.