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Livingston vs Dundee Utd — League Cup 2018

Livingston
Livingston
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Dundee Utd
Dundee Utd
8/31/2022League CupLeague Cup · 2nd RoundTony Macaroni Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Livingston43%
×Draw26%
Dundee Utd31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Livingston
1.42
Dundee Utd
1.16

Livingston creates 22% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 17 away

creates per match

Livingston
1.83
Dundee Utd
1.71

allows per match

Livingston
0.61
Dundee Utd
1.00

finishing

Livingston+0.00on par
Dundee Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Livingston ↓

Dundee Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Livingston or draw
69%
Livingston or Dundee Utd
74%
Draw or Dundee Utd
57%

Winning margin

Livingston wins by 2+
21%
Dundee Utd wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Livingston 1+ goals
76%
Livingston 2+ goals
41%
Livingston 3+ goals
17%
Dundee Utd 1+ goals
69%
Dundee Utd 2+ goals
32%
Dundee Utd 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Livingston (draw refunded)
58%
Dundee Utd (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Livingston at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.61 · 23 matches

Dundee Utd away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Livingston attack 1.83 + Dundee Utd defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.42

Dundee Utd attack 1.71 + Livingston defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Livingston scores more
43%
level
26%
Dundee Utd scores more
31%

Livingston at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Livingston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Livingston vs Dundee Utd

Dundee Utd beat Livingston 2-1 in League Cup on August 31, 2022.

The match was played at Tony Macaroni Arena in Livingston.