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Liverpool W vs Bristol City W — FA WSL 2018

Liverpool W
Liverpool W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bristol City W
Bristol City W
10/13/2019FA WSLFA WSL · Round 3Prenton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Liverpool W60%
×Draw20%
Bristol City W20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liverpool W
2.21
Bristol City W
1.21

Liverpool W creates 83% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 40 away

creates per match

Liverpool W
1.33
Bristol City W
1.02

allows per match

Liverpool W
1.41
Bristol City W
3.10

finishing

Liverpool W+0.00on par
Bristol City W+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liverpool W ↓

Bristol City W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Liverpool W or draw
80%
Liverpool W or Bristol City W
80%
Draw or Bristol City W
40%

Winning margin

Liverpool W wins by 2+
37%
Bristol City W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Liverpool W 1+ goals
89%
Liverpool W 2+ goals
65%
Liverpool W 3+ goals
38%
Bristol City W 1+ goals
70%
Bristol City W 2+ goals
34%
Bristol City W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Liverpool W (draw refunded)
75%
Bristol City W (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liverpool W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.41 · 61 matches

Bristol City W away — creates 1.02, concedes 3.10 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liverpool W attack 1.33 + Bristol City W defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 2.21

Bristol City W attack 1.02 + Liverpool W defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Liverpool W scores more
60%
level
20%
Bristol City W scores more
20%

Liverpool W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Liverpool W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Liverpool W vs Bristol City W

Liverpool W and Bristol City W drew 1-1 in FA WSL on October 13, 2019.

The match was played at Prenton Park in Birkenhead, Merseyside.