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Bristol City W vs Liverpool W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Bristol City W
Bristol City W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Liverpool W
Liverpool W
1/14/2024FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 4th RoundAshton Gate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Bristol City W24%
×Draw21%
Liverpool W55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bristol City W
1.32
Liverpool W
2.09

Liverpool W creates 58% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

creates per match

Bristol City W
2.00
Liverpool W
2.18

allows per match

Bristol City W
2.00
Liverpool W
0.64

finishing

Bristol City W+0.00on par
Liverpool W+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City W ↓

Liverpool W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Bristol City W or draw
45%
Bristol City W or Liverpool W
79%
Draw or Liverpool W
76%

Winning margin

Bristol City W wins by 2+
10%
Liverpool W wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Bristol City W 1+ goals
73%
Bristol City W 2+ goals
38%
Bristol City W 3+ goals
15%
Liverpool W 1+ goals
88%
Liverpool W 2+ goals
62%
Liverpool W 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Bristol City W (draw refunded)
30%
Liverpool W (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City W at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

Liverpool W away — creates 2.18, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City W attack 2.00 + Liverpool W defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.32

Liverpool W attack 2.18 + Bristol City W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Bristol City W scores more
24%
level
21%
Liverpool W scores more
55%

Liverpool W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Liverpool W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bristol City W vs Liverpool W

Liverpool W beat Bristol City W 1-0 in FA Women's Cup on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at Ashton Gate Stadium in Bristol.