Liverpool 2–2 West Ham: Result & Stats

Liverpool

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

West Ham

D. Origi 48'

A. Lallana 5'

M. Antonio 39'

D. Payet 27'

12/11/2016

Premier League · Round 15Anfield

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 34+ matches

Liverpool56%

×Draw22%

West Ham21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LiverpoolExpected goals in this matchWest Ham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.08

Liverpool

1.89

West Ham

1.08

Liverpool creates 75% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 35 away

1.93

creates per match

1.06

1.10

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Liverpool

1.93

West Ham

1.06

allows per match

Liverpool

1.10

West Ham

1.85

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Liverpool+0.16scores more

West Ham-0.09on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liverpool ↓

West Ham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Liverpool or draw

79%

Liverpool or West Ham

78%

Draw or West Ham

44%

Winning margin

Liverpool wins by 2+

32%

West Ham wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Liverpool 1+ goals

85%

Liverpool 2+ goals

56%

Liverpool 3+ goals

29%

West Ham 1+ goals

66%

West Ham 2+ goals

29%

West Ham 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Liverpool (draw refunded)

72%

West Ham (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liverpool at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.10 · 34 matches

West Ham away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.85 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liverpool attack 1.93 + West Ham defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.89

West Ham attack 1.06 + Liverpool defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Liverpool scores more

56%

level

22%

West Ham scores more

21%

Liverpool at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Liverpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

J. Henderson

Liverpool · M

7.6

Match Events

5'

27'

39'

46'

48'

53'

63'

76'

78'

E. Fernandes← M. Lanzini

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LiverpoolWest

Overview

67%Possession33%

19Total Shots8

11Corners4

7Fouls8

Shots

19Total Shots8

3On Target3

7Off Target4

9Blocked1

16Inside Box3

3Outside Box5

Passing

67%Possession33%

611Total Passes303

516Accurate Passes195

84%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

7Fouls8

2Yellow Cards0

5Offsides2