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Liverpool vs Norwich — League #45 2026

Liverpool
Liverpool
FT
5 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Norwich
Norwich
R. Gravenberch 90+5'
V. van Dijk 63'
Diogo Jota 53'
D. Núñez 28'
C. Jones 16'
Borja Sainz 69'
B. Gibson 22'
1/28/2024League #45League #45 · 4th RoundAnfield

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Liverpool68%
×Draw17%
Norwich15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liverpool
2.58
Norwich
1.13

Liverpool creates 128% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Liverpool
3.40
Norwich
1.25

allows per match

Liverpool
1.00
Norwich
1.75

finishing

Liverpool+0.00on par
Norwich+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liverpool ↓

Norwich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Liverpool or draw
85%
Liverpool or Norwich
83%
Draw or Norwich
32%

Winning margin

Liverpool wins by 2+
46%
Norwich wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Liverpool 1+ goals
92%
Liverpool 2+ goals
72%
Liverpool 3+ goals
47%
Norwich 1+ goals
68%
Norwich 2+ goals
31%
Norwich 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Liverpool (draw refunded)
82%
Norwich (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liverpool at home — creates 3.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Norwich away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liverpool attack 3.40 + Norwich defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.58

Norwich attack 1.25 + Liverpool defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Liverpool scores more
68%
level
17%
Norwich scores more
15%

Liverpool at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Liverpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

84
C. BradleyLiverpoolLiverpool · D
8.7

Match Events

16'
C. Jones↳ J. McConnell
22'
B. Gibson↳ Gabriel Sara
28'
D. Núñez↳ C. Bradley
53'
Diogo Jota
55'
V. van Dijk← I. Konaté
55'
A. Robertson← J. Gomez
55'
D. Szoboszlai← C. Jones
61'
Borja Sainz← O. Hernández
62'
J. Sørensen← G. Hanley
62'
A. Idah← A. Barnes
63'
V. van Dijk↳ D. Szoboszlai
66'
T. Alexander-Arnold← D. Núñez
69'
Borja Sainz
79'
L. Díaz← J. McConnell
83'
D. Giannoulis← S. McCallum
84'
L. Gibbs← C. Fassnacht
90+5'
R. Gravenberch↳ C. Bradley

Possession

73%Liverpool

Shots

29Liverpool

Pass accuracy

53%Liverpool

Statistics

LiverpoolNorwich
Overview
73%Possession27%
29Total Shots6
13Corners2
7Fouls3
Shots
29Total Shots6
10On Target5
12Off Target1
7Blocked0
18Inside Box2
11Outside Box4
Passing
73%Possession27%
723Total Passes277
654Accurate Passes222
90%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
7Fouls3
0Offsides1

League #45: Liverpool 5–2 Norwich

Liverpool beat Norwich 5-2 in League #45 on January 28, 2024.

Goals: C. Jones (16'), B. Gibson (22'), D. Núñez (28'), Diogo Jota (53'), V. van Dijk (63'), Borja Sainz (69'), R. Gravenberch (90+5').

Liverpool controlled possession (73%) and registered 29 shots to 6.

The match was played at Anfield in Liverpool.