Liverpool 3–1 Norwich: Result & Stats

Liverpool

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Norwich

L. Díaz 81'

Mohamed Salah 67'

S. Mané 64'

M. Rashica 48'

2/19/2022

Premier League · Round 26Anfield

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Liverpool70%

×Draw19%

Norwich11%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LiverpoolExpected goals in this matchNorwich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

0.70

Liverpool

2.12

Norwich

0.70

Liverpool creates 203% more chances

Season form · 197 home / 54 away

2.20

creates per match

0.56

0.84

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Liverpool

2.20

Norwich

0.56

allows per match

Liverpool

0.84

Norwich

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Liverpool+0.00on par

Norwich+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liverpool ↓

Norwich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Liverpool or draw

89%

Liverpool or Norwich

81%

Draw or Norwich

30%

Winning margin

Liverpool wins by 2+

45%

Norwich wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Liverpool 1+ goals

88%

Liverpool 2+ goals

62%

Liverpool 3+ goals

35%

Norwich 1+ goals

50%

Norwich 2+ goals

16%

Norwich 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Liverpool (draw refunded)

86%

Norwich (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liverpool at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.84 · 197 matches

Norwich away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.04 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liverpool attack 2.20 + Norwich defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.12

Norwich attack 0.56 + Liverpool defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Liverpool scores more

70%

level

19%

Norwich scores more

11%

Liverpool at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Liverpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Mohamed Salah

Liverpool · F

8.2

Match Events

40'

Brandon Williams

48'

M. Rashica↳ J. Sargent

62'

D. Origi← N. Keïta

62'

Thiago Alcântara← A. Oxlade-Chamberlain

64'

S. Mané↳ K. Tsimikas

67'

Mohamed Salah↳ Alisson

76'

P. Płacheta← J. Sargent

81'

P. Lees Melou← M. Normann

81'

L. Díaz↳ J. Henderson

86'

J. Rowe← M. Rashica

90'

T. Minamino← L. Díaz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LiverpoolNorwich

Overview

69%Possession31%

29Total Shots6

8Corners4

7Fouls8

Shots

29Total Shots6

8On Target1

11Off Target4

10Blocked1

16Inside Box3

13Outside Box3

Passing

69%Possession31%

697Total Passes308

623Accurate Passes220

89%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

7Fouls8

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides5