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Liverpool vs Norwich — Premier League 2026

Liverpool
Liverpool
FT
4 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
Norwich
Norwich
D. Origi 42'
V. van Dijk 28'
Mohamed Salah 19'
G. Hanley 7' (OG)
T. Pukki 64'
8/9/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Anfield

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Liverpool70%
×Draw19%
Norwich11%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liverpool
2.12
Norwich
0.70

Liverpool creates 203% more chances

Season form · 197 home / 54 away

creates per match

Liverpool
2.20
Norwich
0.56

allows per match

Liverpool
0.84
Norwich
2.04

finishing

Liverpool+0.00on par
Norwich+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liverpool ↓

Norwich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Liverpool or draw
89%
Liverpool or Norwich
81%
Draw or Norwich
30%

Winning margin

Liverpool wins by 2+
45%
Norwich wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Liverpool 1+ goals
88%
Liverpool 2+ goals
62%
Liverpool 3+ goals
35%
Norwich 1+ goals
50%
Norwich 2+ goals
16%
Norwich 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Liverpool (draw refunded)
86%
Norwich (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liverpool at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.84 · 197 matches

Norwich away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.04 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liverpool attack 2.20 + Norwich defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.12

Norwich attack 0.56 + Liverpool defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Liverpool scores more
70%
level
19%
Norwich scores more
11%

Liverpool at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Liverpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
Mohamed SalahLiverpoolLiverpool · F
8.4

Match Events

7'
G. HanleyOwn goal
19'
Mohamed Salah↳ Roberto Firmino
28'
V. van Dijk↳ Mohamed Salah
39'
Adrián← Alisson
42'
D. Origi↳ T. Alexander-Arnold
58'
M. Leitner← M. Stiepermann
60'
Moritz Leitner
64'
T. Pukki↳ E. Buendía
65'
Emiliano Buendía
70'
O. Hernández← T. Trybull
74'
S. Mané← D. Origi
83'
J. Drmic← T. Pukki
86'
J. Milner← Roberto Firmino

Possession

57%Liverpool

Shots

15Liverpool

Pass accuracy

51%Liverpool

Statistics

LiverpoolNorwich
Overview
57%Possession43%
15Total Shots12
11Corners2
9Fouls9
Shots
15Total Shots12
7On Target5
5Off Target5
3Blocked2
11Inside Box8
4Outside Box4
Passing
57%Possession43%
477Total Passes363
387Accurate Passes278
81%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
9Fouls9
0Yellow Cards2
0Offsides5

Match Recap: Liverpool vs Norwich

Liverpool beat Norwich 4-1 in Premier League on August 9, 2019.

Goals: G. Hanley (7' o.g.), Mohamed Salah (19'), V. van Dijk (28'), D. Origi (42'), T. Pukki (64').

Liverpool controlled possession (57%) and registered 15 shots to 12.

The match was played at Anfield in Liverpool.