Liverpool 2–1 Leicester: Result & Stats

Liverpool

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Leicester

W. Faes 45' (OG), 38' (OG)

K. Dewsbury-Hall 4'

12/30/2022

Premier League · Round 18Anfield

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 170+ matches

Liverpool55%

×Draw22%

Leicester23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LiverpoolExpected goals in this matchLeicester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.15

Liverpool

1.91

Leicester

1.15

Liverpool creates 66% more chances

Season form · 197 home / 170 away

2.20

creates per match

1.45

0.84

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Liverpool

2.20

Leicester

1.45

allows per match

Liverpool

0.84

Leicester

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Liverpool+0.00on par

Leicester+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liverpool ↓

Leicester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Liverpool or draw

77%

Liverpool or Leicester

78%

Draw or Leicester

45%

Winning margin

Liverpool wins by 2+

32%

Leicester wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Liverpool 1+ goals

85%

Liverpool 2+ goals

57%

Liverpool 3+ goals

30%

Leicester 1+ goals

68%

Leicester 2+ goals

32%

Leicester 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Liverpool (draw refunded)

71%

Leicester (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liverpool at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.84 · 197 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.61 · 170 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liverpool attack 2.20 + Leicester defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.91

Leicester attack 1.45 + Liverpool defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Liverpool scores more

55%

level

22%

Leicester scores more

23%

Liverpool at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Liverpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

Thiago Alcântara

Liverpool · M

8.3

Match Events

4'

K. Dewsbury-Hall↳ P. Daka

15'

J. Vardy← P. Daka

38'

W. FaesOwn goal

45'

W. FaesOwn goal

59'

Y. Tielemans← W. Ndidi

62'

N. Keïta← A. Oxlade-Chamberlain

62'

K. Tsimikas← A. Robertson

67'

Boubakary Soumaré

71'

K. Ịheanachọ← Ayoze Pérez

86'

J. Gomez← T. Alexander-Arnold

86'

Stefan Bajčetić← H. Elliott

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LiverpoolLeicester

Overview

57%Possession43%

21Total Shots7

4Corners5

8Fouls15

Shots

21Total Shots7

5On Target2

10Off Target3

6Blocked2

12Inside Box6

9Outside Box1

Passing

57%Possession43%

588Total Passes448

496Accurate Passes352

84%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

8Fouls15

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides5