Leicester 0–3 Liverpool: Result & Stats

Leicester

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Liverpool

T. Alexander-Arnold 71'

C. Jones 36', 33'

5/15/2023

Premier League · Round 36King Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Leicester31%

×Draw25%

Liverpool44%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeicesterExpected goals in this matchLiverpool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.53

Leicester

1.26

Liverpool

1.53

Liverpool creates 21% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 27 away

1.27

creates per match

1.64

1.42

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Leicester

1.27

Liverpool

1.64

allows per match

Leicester

1.42

Liverpool

1.25

-0.07on par

finishing

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

Leicester-0.07on par

Liverpool+0.29scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester ↓

Liverpool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Leicester or draw

56%

Leicester or Liverpool

75%

Draw or Liverpool

69%

Winning margin

Leicester wins by 2+

13%

Liverpool wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Leicester 1+ goals

72%

Leicester 2+ goals

36%

Leicester 3+ goals

13%

Liverpool 1+ goals

78%

Liverpool 2+ goals

45%

Liverpool 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Leicester (draw refunded)

42%

Liverpool (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.42 · 5 matches

Liverpool away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.25 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester attack 1.27 + Liverpool defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.26

Liverpool attack 1.64 + Leicester defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Leicester scores more

31%

level

25%

Liverpool scores more

44%

Liverpool at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Liverpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

C. Jones

Liverpool · M

8.9

Match Events

33'

C. Jones↳ Mohamed Salah

36'

C. Jones↳ Mohamed Salah

53'

Ricardo Pereira

61'

P. Daka← W. Ndidi

61'

Tetê← H. Barnes

67'

L. Thomas← Ricardo Pereira

71'

T. Alexander-Arnold↳ Mohamed Salah

74'

Diogo Jota← L. Díaz

74'

J. Milner← J. Henderson

84'

Fábio Carvalho← C. Jones

86'

Ibrahima Konaté

88'

H. Elliott← Mohamed Salah

89'

H. Souttar← J. Evans

90+1'

Luke Thomas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeicesterLiverpool

Overview

33%Possession67%

4Total Shots16

0.41Expected Goals (xG)2.15

4Corners4

11Fouls17

Shots

4Total Shots16

4On Target5

0Off Target6

0Blocked5

3Inside Box12

1Outside Box4

Passing

33%Possession67%

331Total Passes675

230Accurate Passes576

69%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls17

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides4

Match Recap: Leicester vs Liverpool

Liverpool beat Leicester 3-0 in Premier League on May 15, 2023.

Goals: C. Jones (33', 36'), T. Alexander-Arnold (71').

Liverpool controlled possession (67%) and registered 16 shots to 4.

The match was played at King Power Stadium in Leicester, Leicestershire.

Leicester vs Liverpool — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Leicester vs Liverpool