Liverpool 2–1 Leicester: Result & Stats

Liverpool

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Leicester

Mohamed Salah 76', 52'

J. Vardy 3'

12/30/2017

Premier League · Round 21Anfield

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Liverpool52%

×Draw22%

Leicester26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LiverpoolExpected goals in this matchLeicester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.38

Liverpool

2.02

Leicester

1.38

Liverpool creates 46% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 9 away

1.93

creates per match

1.65

1.10

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Liverpool

1.93

Leicester

1.65

allows per match

Liverpool

1.10

Leicester

2.11

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

Liverpool+0.16scores more

Leicester-0.21scores less

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liverpool ↓

Leicester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Liverpool or draw

74%

Liverpool or Leicester

78%

Draw or Leicester

48%

Winning margin

Liverpool wins by 2+

30%

Leicester wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Liverpool 1+ goals

87%

Liverpool 2+ goals

60%

Liverpool 3+ goals

33%

Leicester 1+ goals

75%

Leicester 2+ goals

40%

Leicester 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Liverpool (draw refunded)

67%

Leicester (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liverpool at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.10 · 34 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.65, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liverpool attack 1.93 + Leicester defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.02

Leicester attack 1.65 + Liverpool defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Liverpool scores more

52%

level

22%

Leicester scores more

26%

Liverpool at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Liverpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Mohamed Salah

Liverpool · F

7.5

Match Events

3'

J. Vardy↳ R. Mahrez

8'

James Milner

52'

Mohamed Salah↳ S. Mané

53'

Emre Can

53'

Harry Maguire

62'

Wilfred Ndidi

72'

A. Oxlade-Chamberlain← S. Mané

73'

S. Okazaki← R. Mahrez

74'

I. Slimani← J. Vardy

76'

Mohamed Salah↳ J. Milner

83'

G. Wijnaldum← Mohamed Salah

83'

M. James← M. Albrighton

89'

R. Klavan← Philippe Coutinho

90'

Andrew Robertson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LiverpoolLeicester

Overview

60%Possession40%

18Total Shots7

7Corners1

7Fouls3

Shots

18Total Shots7

6On Target1

7Off Target1

5Blocked5

13Inside Box4

5Outside Box3

Passing

60%Possession40%

566Total Passes371

456Accurate Passes258

81%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

7Fouls3

3Yellow Cards2

4Offsides3