Liverpool 2–0 Burnley: Result & Stats

Liverpool

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Burnley

S. Mané 69'

Diogo Jota 18'

8/21/2021

Premier League · Round 2Anfield

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Liverpool61%

×Draw21%

Burnley18%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LiverpoolExpected goals in this matchBurnley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

0.94

Liverpool

1.96

Burnley

0.94

Liverpool creates 109% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 20 away

1.83

creates per match

0.72

1.16

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Liverpool

1.83

Burnley

0.72

allows per match

Liverpool

1.16

Burnley

2.08

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

Liverpool+0.17scores more

Burnley+0.33scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liverpool ↓

Burnley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Liverpool or draw

82%

Liverpool or Burnley

79%

Draw or Burnley

39%

Winning margin

Liverpool wins by 2+

37%

Burnley wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Liverpool 1+ goals

86%

Liverpool 2+ goals

58%

Liverpool 3+ goals

31%

Burnley 1+ goals

61%

Burnley 2+ goals

24%

Burnley 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Liverpool (draw refunded)

78%

Burnley (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liverpool at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.16 · 26 matches

Burnley away — creates 0.72, concedes 2.08 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liverpool attack 1.83 + Burnley defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.96

Burnley attack 0.72 + Liverpool defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Liverpool scores more

61%

level

21%

Burnley scores more

18%

Liverpool at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Liverpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

66

T. Alexander-Arnold

Liverpool · D

8.7

Match Events

18'

Diogo Jota↳ K. Tsimikas

27'

Mohamed SalahGoal cancelled

69'

S. Mané↳ T. Alexander-Arnold

75'

J. Rodriguez← C. Wood

79'

E. Pieters← J. Guðmundsson

81'

Thiago Alcântara← N. Keïta

81'

Roberto Firmino← Diogo Jota

90+2'

J. Gomez← K. Tsimikas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LiverpoolBurnley

Overview

67%Possession33%

27Total Shots9

8Corners4

6Fouls12

Shots

27Total Shots9

9On Target3

10Off Target5

8Blocked1

21Inside Box7

6Outside Box2

Passing

67%Possession33%

527Total Passes263

434Accurate Passes174

82%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

6Fouls12

3Offsides7